TEXAS FIRST IS MISSOURI NEXT

TEXAS FIRST IS MISSOURI NEXT

By lwilliams@semourbanvoices.com - August 28, 2025

Missouri’s Redistricting Crossroads: Black Votes at Risk, Voter Apathy Empowering GOP Strategy

By Urban Voices

As Missouri inches closer to another redistricting showdown, the battle over congressional lines is more than a partisan power play—it’s a high-stakes conflict with deep implications for Black voters, political representation, and the very structure of democracy in the state. With former President Donald Trump pressing for aggressive mid-decade map changes and Missouri Republicans rallying around a plan to shift from a 6-2 to a 7-1 Republican-to-Democrat congressional split, the state could be poised to erase one of its only two Democratic strongholds—Missouri’s 5th District, currently represented by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II.

U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver said national Republican leaders are considering targeting his seat in Congress by changing the boundaries of his district to make it more likely for a Republican to win.

“As far as I know, they are moving right now to draw maps — that I have not seen — that would exclude the 5th District, which I represent, or they would merge it into some other districts,” Cleaver said at an event in Grandview Monday.

What’s at risk isn’t just party power. What’s at risk is Black political voice.

The Rise of 7-1: A Blueprint for Suppression?

The 5th District, centered in Kansas City, is not only a Democratic base—it is a majority-minority district, long seen as the last federal line of defense for Black Missourians in Congress. Under current redistricting proposals, this district could be carved up and diluted, its voters scattered across Republican-leaning districts in a move that many critics are calling modern-day voter suppression.

And it’s not just Missouri. This push comes amid a national Republican strategy, inspired by recent redistricting moves in Texas, to cement GOP dominance through the manipulation of district lines. There, GOP lawmakers aim to redraw maps in a way that would give them up to five new congressional seats—primarily by dividing Democratic urban areas such as Houston and Dallas into Republican-majority districts.

Missouri appears to be next in line.

State Republicans, emboldened by Trump’s public endorsement and organized pressure from the Missouri Freedom Caucus, are seeking to call a special legislative session to redraw the map before the 2026 midterms. The most likely outcome: a 7-1 map that eliminates Rep. Cleaver’s seat by splintering the district and stretching its remains across Republican-dominated rural territory.

The Real Issue: Voter Apathy

While the GOP’s strategic advantage is clear, an uncomfortable truth also looms on the Democratic side—voter apathy, particularly among young and Black voters, has left the door wide open for these tactics to succeed.

Despite systemic barriers, voter turnout among Black Missourians has declined steadily in recent cycles. Organizers in Southeast Missouri and Kansas City alike have cited frustrations over systemic inequality, lack of investment in Black communities, and a growing belief that politics doesn’t change anything as drivers of disengagement. And in a state where turnout is already low, every disengaged voter is another brick laid on the path to GOP dominance.

If a special session is called this fall—as many insiders expect—it’s likely to be swift and decisive. Unlike the 2022 redistricting fight, which saw internal Republican conflict and a historic 31-hour filibuster, today’s GOP-led legislature is more unified and emboldened. In 2022, moderate Republicans and Democrats brokered a compromise map that preserved a 6-2 split. But that delicate balance may be gone for good.

Even some Republicans are warning about overreach. Former Missouri GOP Chair John Hancock recently cautioned that an overly aggressive redraw could lead to legal challenges and long-term political backlash. Yet Trump’s influence is pushing hard in the other direction—and many in the party seem ready to fall in line.

The Legal and Ethical Implications

Redistricting mid-decade isn’t illegal—but that doesn’t make it ethical. In fact, courts have often stepped in to halt such efforts when they violate the Voting Rights Act or other constitutional protections. The dilution of minority voting power—especially when it appears targeted—could trigger lawsuits from civil rights groups and national watchdog organizations. But whether that will happen fast enough to prevent the map from being used in 2026 remains to be seen.

Missouri’s last redistricting clash ended with compromise, but the tone today is different. More aggressive. Less restrained. And fueled by Trump’s clear strategy to redraw the national congressional map state-by-state.

What Would a 7-1 Map Look Like?

Two options are reportedly under discussion:

1. Central Missouri Expansion: This scenario splits Jackson County—Kansas City’s core—into multiple districts and pushes the 5th District deep into central Missouri, potentially absorbing Columbia and surrounding rural counties.
2. Northern Suburban Consolidation: The second scenario creates a new moderate-Republican district by consolidating northern Jackson County with suburban counties like Platte and Clay, undermining the Democratic core of the current 5th District.

Either option would make it nearly impossible for Rep. Cleaver to win re-election—and dramatically reduce Black Missourians’ representation in Congress.

Who Benefits—and Who Loses?

A 7-1 map would likely open up new seats for several ambitious Missouri Republicans, including Sen. Kurtis Gregory, Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer, and Speaker Jon Patterson. Meanwhile, Democrats would be reduced to a single seat—most likely held by freshman Rep. Wesley Bell, who represents the 1st District in St. Louis.

For Missouri’s Black voters, this is more than a numbers game. It’s about preserving hard-won representation—and confronting the painful reality that even that progress can be rolled back when engagement falters.

The Path Forward: What Can Be Done?

If there’s any lesson from this moment, it’s this: Democracy requires participation. The more voters, especially Black and young voters, disengage from elections and civic life, the easier it becomes for entrenched powers to redraw the rules in their favor.

Missouri’s redistricting battle is a wake-up call. Voter apathy isn’t neutral—it’s political. It’s how bad maps become law. It’s how communities lose their voice.

As the GOP moves to capitalize on this moment, the question now is whether Missouri’s voters—particularly those whose representation is on the line—will rise to meet it.

Urban Voices will continue monitoring developments around Missouri’s redistricting process and its impact on Black voters. Stay informed. Stay engaged. Your vote still matters—maybe now more than ever.